College remains one of the most debated financial decisions for young Americans. The classic pitch, higher lifetime earnings and better job security still holds for many, but rising costs, student debt, and strong alternatives in the skilled trades have complicated the picture. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), National Student Clearinghouse, College Board, and Federal Reserve analyses show a more nuanced reality: the average bachelor’s degree delivers a solid return, yet outcomes vary dramatically by major, completion, and the path taken.
Let’s break down the numbers on college enrollment and graduation rates, compare earnings of college graduates by field against specialized trades, and examines overall return on investment (ROI).
College Enrollment vs. Graduation Rates: The Completion Gap
According to BLS Data, roughly 63% of recent high school graduates enroll in college within a year of finishing high school. Immediate enrollment rates have hovered in the low-to-mid 60% range in recent years after peaking higher earlier in the decade.
Far fewer finish. National six-year completion rates for students who start college stand at about 61% (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data for the fall 2019 cohort). This figure includes any undergraduate credential, certificate, associate degree, or bachelors. Full-time students complete at higher rates (around 67%) than part-time students (about 34%). Students who begin at private nonprofit four-year schools see the strongest outcomes (mid-70% range), while those starting at public two-year colleges lag.
Traditional “on-time” four-year bachelor’s completion rates are lower still. Many students take five or six years, transfer, or leave without a degree. Dropout risk is one of the biggest diluters of college ROI programs that look strong for completers often turn negative once non-completion is factored in.
The College Wage Premium: Still Real, But Highly Variable
Bachelor’s degree holders continue to out-earn high school graduates by a substantial margin. Median weekly earnings for workers with a bachelor’s degree only run roughly $1,540–$1,580 (BLS recent data), annualizing to about $80,000–$82,000. That represents a 65–75% premium over typical high school graduates.
Lifetime, however, depends heavily on the field of study:
High-ROI majors (STEM and quantitative fields) pull far ahead:
- Computer science and most engineering disciplines (mechanical, electrical, chemical, computer, aerospace): Early-career medians often $75,000–$100,000+; mid-career (ages 35–45) commonly $115,000–$125,000+.
- Economics, finance, mathematics, and physics: Frequently reach $100,000–$110,000 by mid-career.
Mid-tier fields (business, nursing, some applied areas):
- Nursing (BSN), accounting, and many business majors: Solid early-career pay and mid-career medians in the $85,000–$100,000 range.
Lower-ROI fields:
- Psychology, education (especially elementary and early childhood), liberal arts, communications, history, sociology, and fine arts: Early-career earnings often $40,000–$55,000; mid-career frequently $55,000–$75,000.
Overall bachelor’s medians mask this spread. STEM majors as a group have posted significantly higher prime-age earnings than education or public-service fields.
Federal Reserve researchers estimate the median lifetime return on a bachelor’s degree at around 12.5% after tuition and forgone earnings, better than long-run stock market returns. Net present value can exceed $1 million for typical completers, but over a quarter of programs show negative ROI once dropout risk is included.
Skilled Trades: A Competitive Alternative
Specialized trades often match or exceed earnings of average and lower-tier college majors, especially in the first 10–15 years of a career, while avoiding most student debt.
Approximate national median wages (BLS OEWS, recent 2024–2025 data):
- Elevator and escalator installers/repairers: $100,000–$110,000
- Electrical power-line workers: $90,000–$95,000+
- Electricians and plumbers/pipefitters: $63,000–$72,000 (top 10% frequently $100,000+)
- HVAC technicians: $61,000–$68,000
- Welders: $50,000–$57,000 base (specialized roles much higher)
- Many skilled construction trades: $60,000–$66,000
Apprenticeships typically pay while training. Workers reach journeyman-level pay in four to five years with little or no debt. Cumulative early-career earnings and net worth often favor the trade path versus many non-STEM college routes after accounting for tuition, opportunity cost, and loan payments.
Trades lag the strongest STEM majors over a full career but compete effectively against psychology, education, liberal arts, and similar fields. Physical demands, injury risk, and weather exposure are real trade-offs, offset in many cases by strong local demand, overtime opportunities, and paths to business ownership.
Earnings: Self-Employed vs. Employees
It’s also important to point out that there can be significantly different economic outcomes in the trades for people that go into business for themselves rather than working their entire careers as an employee.
BLS medians mostly reflect wage-and-salary workers. Self-employed earnings look different:
- Upper end and averages – Successful owners and contractors frequently clear $100,000–$200,000+ (and sometimes far more in strong markets with employees or specialization). Industry commentary and contractor surveys routinely note that business ownership is a primary path to six-figure and higher incomes in the trades. Tax-data research (covering broader self-employment) finds that people who try self-employment show steeper average income growth over their careers than pure wage workers, though the distribution is highly skewed as top earners capture a large share of total self-employment income.
- Median/typical cases – Many studies and tax analyses find that the majority of self-employed individuals (after controls for skills and education) report lower taxable income than comparable employees, at least in early years. High overhead (insurance, vehicles, tools, marketing, licensing), unpaid admin time (often 3–5 hours per day for solo operators), seasonality, and irregular cash flow pull effective hourly rates down. A solo plumber or electrician billing $125–$200/hour may net far less after expenses and non-billable hours.
- Variance and risk – Self-employed income inequality is much larger than for employees. Construction self-employment was hit hard in past downturns (e.g., housing-related sectors). Benefits (health insurance, retirement, paid leave) are typically weaker or self-funded. Injury risk and lack of OSHA coverage for pure independents are additional factors.
Skilled Trades Demand Outlook
When evaluating the current demand trends, skilled trades currently show stronger, more shortage-driven demand growth when compared to other areas of college study, such as the typical MBA pathway, according to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment projections and supporting labor-market indicators.
BLS projects solid growth for core trades, often faster than the overall economy’s 3–4% employment growth, with large numbers of annual openings driven by both expansion and especially retirements/replacements:
- Electricians: Projected growth of about 9–9.5%, with roughly 81,000 openings per year on average. Drivers include data-center construction, EV charging infrastructure, renewable energy (solar/wind), grid modernization, and general building electrification.
- HVAC mechanics and installers: Projected growth of about 8%, with around 40,000 annual openings. Climate-related demand, heat-pump conversions, and aging building stock support this.
- Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters: Projected growth of about 4–4.5% (near or slightly above average), with roughly 44,000 annual openings. Steady demand from infrastructure repair, new construction, and replacements.
- Broader construction and extraction occupations: Projected growth around 5–6%, with hundreds of thousands of openings annually across related roles. The construction industry itself is projected to grow roughly 4–5%.
Many of these opening’s stem from an aging workforce (a large share of current tradespeople nearing retirement) plus new demand from infrastructure, energy transition, and industrial projects. Industry reports continue to highlight shortages of qualified workers in electrical, plumbing, HVAC, and related fields, which has supported wage pressure in many markets. Self-employment and contracting opportunities add further flexibility and upside.
Key takeaways for students and families:
- Major choice matters more than the decision to attend college itself.
- Completion is critical – starting and not finishing is often the worst financial outcome.
- Trades offer faster break-even, paid training, and competitive mid-career pay for many people.
- Location, personal aptitude, and career preferences (desk vs. hands-on work) should weigh heavily alongside pure salary data.
Putting It Together: ROI and Practical Considerations
College still pays for most people who complete a degree in a solid field without excessive debt or extended time to graduation. But the premium has largely plateaued rather than grown since the early 2000s, while costs and opportunity costs have remained significant. Net tuition after aid has been flatter than sticker prices suggest, yet debt service and non-completion remain major risks.
Conclusion
The data does not support a universal “college is always worth it” or “trades always beat college” conclusion. It supports careful evaluation of specific programs, realistic completion odds, and alternatives. For those suited to high-demand trades or strong quantitative majors, the numbers remain favorable. For others, the financial case is far less automatic than it once appeared.
Wayne Gretzky is most famously attributed with the quote, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
It’s important for young people, and the parents that guide them to keep that mindset when choosing their career path. It’s wise you consider these three things.
- What you enjoy doing.
- What you are good at.
- What will compensate you well.
And then find the intersection of the three. In some cases, a college education may be a necessity, and in some cases, it can be an enormous debt burden with an ROI that doesn’t justify the expense. College isn’t for everyone, but it is for some of us.
About the Author
Joseph M. Favorito, CFP® is a Certified Financial Planner® as well as the founder and managing partner at Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a fee-only SEC registered investment advisory firm. He specializes in helping individuals and families develop comprehensive financial strategies to achieve their long-term goals.