If you’re wondering whether market timing really works, this eye-opening data from 2025 delivers a crystal-clear answer: staying fully invested in the S&P 500 crushed the returns of anyone who sat on the sidelines for even a single top-performing day.
According to a powerful new analysis by Ned Davis Research, Morningstar, and Hartford Funds, missing the market’s best days in 2025 slashed annual returns dramatically, and skipping just four of them actually turned a solid gain into a loss.
Here’s exactly what the numbers show:
- Fully invested (never missing a day): +17.88% average annual total return
- Missing the single best day: +7.64% (a 57% decrease)
- Missing the two best days: +4.23% (a 76% decrease)
- Missing the three best days: +1.67% (a 91% decrease)
- Missing the four best days: –0.46% (a 103% decrease — yes, you lost money)
The chart makes it painfully obvious: the S&P 500’s 2025 performance was powered by a handful of explosive days. Sit those out, and your returns evaporated.
Why Do a Few Days Matter So Much in the Stock Market?
Stock market returns are notoriously “lumpy.” Big up-days often come during periods of high volatility or right after sharp selloffs. In 2025, those monster rallies happened in concentrated bursts. Investors who tried to avoid downturns by jumping in and out ended up missing the very sessions that drove the entire year’s gains.
This isn’t just a 2025 phenomenon, it’s a timeless investing truth. Yet every year, thousands of people still attempt to time the market, selling during fear and waiting for the “perfect” re-entry point. The data proves that strategy is incredibly costly.
What This Means for Your 2026 Investing Strategy
If you’re reviewing your portfolio after 2025’s wild ride, here are three actionable takeaways:
- Time in the market beats timing the market – overwhelmingly.
- Even brief absences can wipe out the majority of your gains (or turn them negative).
- Dollar-cost averaging and a long-term buy-and-hold approach protect you from the regret of missing those critical days.
Whether you’re a retirement saver, a high-net-worth investor, or just starting to build wealth, the lesson is the same: stay invested. The cost of being wrong about when to exit is far higher than most people realize.
Ready to Stop Guessing and Start Growing Your Wealth?
The 2025 S&P 500 data is a powerful reminder that successful investing isn’t about predicting the next big move, it’s about being there when the market delivers its best days.
If you’re tired of second-guessing your portfolio or worried you missed out on 2025’s upside, it’s important to review your strategy with a trusted financial advisor. Don’t let another year slip away because you were on the sidelines.
At Landmark, we are consistent advocates of long-term investing on behalf of our clients, as opposed to market timing, because that is what the data has consistently supported.
About the Author
Joseph M. Favorito, CFP® is a Certified Financial Planner® as well as the founder and managing partner at Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a fee-only SEC registered investment advisory firm. He specializes in helping individuals and families develop comprehensive financial strategies to achieve their long-term goals.